For years, investors have been told to prepare for the moment when mounting debt, monetary intervention, or some other imbalance finally breaks the financial system. Yet the system has repeatedly proven more adaptable than its critics expected.
That adaptability may be the more useful place to start. Greyson Geiler explores what happens when investors stop waiting for collapse. What might they see differently if they instead consider how money, capital, and gold could evolve within a financial system that continues to change?
Read the transcript below.
Transcript
Gold is returning to the monetary system
Greyson Geiler
The gold story to me is it’s coming back as a capital asset in the monetary system. The stage is completely set for gold. The Chinese central banks, bullion banks, people are aggregating it around the world. People are aggregating it as a store of value. And when I say it’s coming back as a capital asset, this is the really interesting part.
I always contend that gold performs a completely different function outside the dollar matrix than a Bitcoin. And here’s why. Whether you can make a cryptocurrency or a Bitcoin monetary system sound good on paper, there’s no application in the real world. These are not monetary systems, they’re speculative assets. So that’s why I say that stage is really set for gold. Monetary Metals is doing a great job building a transparent marketplace where lenders and borrowers can come together in a transparent and structured marketplace So that contracts can go out in ounces rather than dollars.
Monetary Metals
Welcome back to the Gold Exchange Podcast. My name is Benjamin Nadelstein. I am joined by the one and only Greyson Geyler. He’s the portfolio manager of the GoldRush Yield Fund, longtime friend of myself and Monetary Metals, and he joins the show today to talk about macro and of course all things gold. Greyson, welcome back.
Greyson Geiler
Hey, thanks for having me, Ben. Really appreciate it.
The conflict between the Treasury and the Fed
Monetary Metals
Greyson, there’s been so much happening in the macro environment for macro nerds like ourselves. What do you make of what’s been going on with Scott Bessent in some ways kind of helping out the Japanese? Trump saying, oh, we’re great friends with the Japanese, that’s why we’re helping them. Of course, getting his subtle dig in while the dollar is actually better than the yen, of course. And then of course, it’s Fed Day. People are saying, oh, there’s going to be a Fed rate hike. Actually, there’s some dissent between Bessent and the Fed. Where do you see this kind of macro picture where we are today?
Greyson Geiler
Yeah, it’s pretty interesting. It sure looked like you rewind a year, it looks like the administration really wanted these 2 guys. I mean, they come from the same stock, really wanted these 2 guys as Treasury Secretary and Fed Chair, starting to blend the 2 together, which they’re clearly doing to a degree. So, it’s a little surprising because it really looks like just in broad and general terms, Bessent really wants to help.
The long end of the Treasury curve, keep long-term interest rates lower. And it looks more like Bess—or that Warsh wants to let the marketplace take care of the long-term interest rates. So I’d say that’s just kind of a—it’s making people wonder. But now today we’re talking about the short end of the curve, and it looks like Warsh is probably going to raise rates a quarter. It doesn’t really mean that much, but it’s something.
Monetary Metals
And what do you think about this internal fight? Because a lot of people in the kind of MMT camp say, well, the government’s just one big entity, the Fed, the Treasury, it doesn’t really matter, they all work together. But is there actually some friction between the Fed and the Treasury? Because maybe on paper, yeah, they both are, you know, hired by Trump, but is that maybe too simplistic?
Greyson Geiler
Probably. It does look like there’s a little bit of dissent, you know, kind of what I was talking about, Bessens trying to support the long end of the curve, meaning Keeping Treasury prices higher on the long end of the curve while keeping interest rates lower. At the end of the day, I think Bessent’s going to win because no one wants to see the long end of the Treasury curve, the prices of these bonds really selling off, which means the interest rates really going to go up. Lots and lots of doomsayers all over YouTube and social media talking about, oh, we’ve got a bond crisis coming. I’m not in that camp, by the way.
Why rising bond yields may not signal a crisis
Monetary Metals
And what do you think has started or kind of perpetuated this fear or the rising bond yields? What do you think it was? Was there something specific coming out of, you know, Truth Social or Trump or the presidency, or is there actually just other broader macro factors that are pushing bond yields higher?
Greyson Geiler
One factor that very few people are talking about is the giant demand for capital. Corporate bond issuance is at all-time highs. There is a voracious demand for capital, meaning many, many companies are issuing a bunch of bonds trying to get capital. Well, of course, supply is part of the interest rate going higher rather than just a grand crisis. Now, Bessent’s on the other side saying he doesn’t really care. Well, I’m sure he does, but it’s less important what’s driving the price of long-term bonds down and long-term interest rates up.
He does want to support it. So he’s basically come out and kind of a put option below, almost like a Greenspan put, saying, hey, we’re going to be buying back Treasuries on the longer end of the curve, telling the Japanese, hey, we’ll help support your yen without you guys selling our Treasuries in order to get the capital to do that. So he’s really doing this. And one of the things that I just find not many people are talking about, at all is when we’re talking about yield curve control, keep in mind some of these longer-term 10-plus-year treasuries that Bessent is talking about buying back have, since the COVID crisis, some of these things have lost 20%, 30%, 40%.
Well, if Bessent issues new treasuries, well, clearly we’re not issuing right now, but we’re finding Some liquidity on the short end of the curve to buy these Treasuries back. You can issue a bond at $0.01 on the dollar and you can buy 2 that are at $0.50 on the dollar. I mean, it’s just spreadsheet math, Ben, and I don’t want to get too complicated into that right now. But keep in mind, they can retire some debt and actually lower the total $40 trillion. Might have to pay a little more in interest expense to do it. But that’s just one of the things that spreadsheet math—
Monetary Metals
Mm-hmm.
Greyson Geiler
Bessett and Warsh, whatever the infighting is, these guys are not stupid. Doesn’t mean they can wave a magic wand and fix everything, ’cause you and I both know there are huge imbalances, but they’ve got a lot of tools. So I’m not looking at a bond crisis right now. Long-winded response to why are bond prices going down? But—
Monetary Metals
Let’s talk about some of those tools in the toolkit for the Treasury and the Fed. Obviously, the interest rate is a big one for the Fed, these buybacks or these purchases for the Treasury. Are there other tools that investors should be watching out for as kind of signs of, hey, something is changing?
Greyson Geiler
Yeah. And, you know, this might be a little bit of the contention between Bessen and Warsh, because part of what Bessen is doing on the long end of the curve is sending out indicators to investors and saying, hey, we’re going to put some stops in place to keep these bond prices from going down further, to keep these long-term interest rates from going up further. So that’s kind of a tool of the Treasury that, you know, no one ever defined. He’s just kind of telling people that. And that’s affecting the marketplace, you know, at least theoretically in a good way.
And that might be part of the contention because Warsh, you know, clearly he’s removing the guidance that the Federal Reserve is putting out. You know, if you listen to, you know, longer interviews with him, he was adamant that he just didn’t like the way the Fed would be putting out so many indicators of what they were going to do. And huge money houses are making all these speculative bets and making all this money off just managing what the Federal Reserve chair is saying. He’s really put a nix to that. So maybe that’s one indication of another tool that these guys have and maybe another indication of what they’re going after each other a little bit about.
Monetary Metals
Do you think now, in, I’d say, the next 6 months, potentially the Democrats maybe add some seats in Congress? You know, there’s a bit of a stalling in terms of the presidential power legislatively. But this is where Trump can lean on Bessent and lean on Walsh and say, listen, I don’t have tools in the toolbox with, you know, the Democrats here. They’re going to fight me every step of the way. But I do have some control over the economy by messing with interest rates or having Scott Bessent help me out at the Treasury. Do you think that there’s going to be even more importance going forward if there is this gridlock in Washington?
Greyson Geiler
It’s at least a consideration. It’s a good question because consensus is that the more the Democrats take control, you’re going to see more inflation. So if Trump is going to try to front-run that, we’ve got a little bit of a, you know, back and forth going on, people saying, hey, if the Fed does not raise short-term interest rates today, there’s going to be pressure on the long end of the bond, meaning long-term interest rates are going to go up because it appears that he’s not fighting inflation. And so there’s so many—the point being, there’s so many nuanced curves on this.
The political end of it is, is one of them. So yeah, I think the Trump was obviously had a huge problem with former Chair Jay Powell and they really got into it. I don’t even know what that was on Twitter. He was calling him a major loser, whatever the case may be. And he was just saying that he was going to pressure interest rates lower and that just hasn’t happened. But there’s always going to be a political angle to this because everybody knows that the Fed is politically influenced.
Monetary Metals
What do you think about this idea that if we actually do have higher interest rates for longer, where Waugh says, listen, I’m not a puppet of Trump, we’re not going back to zero rates. just because he tweets about it. What does that do for the economy? Because a lot of people have said, well, credit spreads just have to blow out if these rates are high. And yet so far we haven’t seen that. Do you think that’s going to change?
Greyson Geiler
I don’t. And I think the credit spreads not blowing out are telling you more that there’s really not a credit crisis imminent and that, hey, this is just huge demand for capital. Of course, nothing is a perfect one-for-one, but the credit spreads remaining tight, there’s still a lot of new currency creation, you know, from the commercial banks and from the Federal So it’s not like anybody’s really trying to tighten the belt. And surprisingly, credit spreads haven’t blown out. But some of the imbalances look bad enough that you would’ve expected the credit spreads to go out already, and they haven’t, which is more indicative of a marketplace that so far is absorbing some of the demand for capital.
Monetary Metals
And for a lot of investors, if they watch YouTube videos or they listen to podcasts, there’s always a crisis around the corner. It’s going to be a bond crisis. private equity, name your list here. What do you agree with some of those takes where you say, listen, I actually do think this is a problem? And where do you diverge and say, yeah, it’s a problem, but it’s not the end of the world?
Greyson Geiler
I think the total debt load is part of it, right? Because, you know, the further we get out with higher interest rates with the debt loads that we have, yes, you will run into a problem. But again, you know, right now we’re not looking at it from the perspective of a bond crisis. I think a lot of the rest of the world has bigger issues than we do.
One thing I would point out that front is at this point, and Bessen even came out and said, you can fight me if you want to. But he’s essentially saying the Japanese, we’re locking their monetary system to ours. So historically, rewind 10 years, you find some of the articles I wrote 15 years ago. I was saying that Japan is the canary in the coal mine of printing too much and really having this sort of a crisis. I’m recanting that if I can, because we, we’ve really absorbed those guys.
Monetary Metals
Yeah.
Greyson Geiler
into what we’re doing. And as time goes on, that’s going to be an interesting watch because huge imbalances as interest rates go up. The Fed’s trying to put a ceiling on interest rates.
Monetary Metals
And that kind of merging of monetary policy between the Japanese yen, which was very important for this carry trade, and the US dollar, which has this kind of global currency hegemony, do you think we’re going to see more of that going forward where the US says, hey, We’re actually going to put our thumb on the scale. We’ll let everyone know we’re putting our thumb on the scale. We’re not going to do it behind closed doors. We want people to know, hey, the dollar is in charge. And if you’re part of our sphere of influence, yes, maybe you have some autonomy. But when it’s a crisis, we want to show you that we’re the ones still kind of running the ship.
Greyson Geiler
You’re absolutely right. It is more out front what we’re doing with this sort of thing now. But keep in mind, involvement in currency valuations, it’s not like this is unprecedented. You know, we actually helped the Japanese press During the ’08, we helped impress the Japanese yen down because they had such a wild return of capital with the carry trade unwinding there. So I think the good way to look at that is the Trump administration, even Bessette and Warsh, we are creating a North America fortress.
Western Hemisphere in general, if you’ve seen what’s going on with some of the oil deals that the Trump administration has cut down to Venezuela, but we’re really trying to Monroe Doctrine it. A lot of people calling it the Donroe Doctrine because we’re making the Western Hemisphere totalitarian if necessary, more self-sufficient away from just the supply chain of China and Southeast Asia. We’re making ourselves more independent of that. And some of that’s going to require, like you’re talking about, just putting our thumb on the scale, but from a Western Hemisphere perspective.
America’s new economic fortress
Monetary Metals
Do you think in that type of world where we say, hey, listen, we don’t care if it’s cheaper from China, we want our goods from basically allies, even if it’s more expensive. For investors, should they be thinking, okay, that basically means maybe, you know, more resilient supply chains but higher inflation? Is that the trade-off?
Greyson Geiler
That is some of the trade-off. But also consider, you know, to really compete even in the ballpark, compete manufacturing-wise with Southeast Asia, we need a lower dollar value in terms of not necessarily other currencies, but relative to hard assets. And, you know, we’ve obviously got a lot of crazy stuff going on with crude oil right now because of the bombs going off in the Middle East.
Eventually we will have a glut of crude oil, but that’s something to watch in the next 6, 8, 10 months or however long the bombs keep going off as well. I would say that higher inflation is going to be part of the game. I don’t see us going back to the 2000—I mean, really 2009 to 2019, completely benign inflation. I’m not sure that’s coming, but runaway inflation, I don’t see see that in the cards either. I think there’s a lot of doomsday fear out there that’s unfounded.
Monetary Metals
Let’s talk about some doomsday fear when it comes to AI. You’ve got some people saying it’s going to take all the jobs, it’s going to destroy humanity, and on the other end they’re saying, oh my gosh, this is going to cure so many diseases, we’re going to have so much more efficiency in all these companies. Where do you sit on the AI play? Is this a deflationary force for good or something that we’ve got to be worried about?
Greyson Geiler
A little bit of both. I would lean towards the deflationary for good camp. I love that there are people out there doomsday fearing it because we need to worry about it. If nobody were worried I would be worried about it. I’m not smart enough to know exactly how this is going to roll out. I really don’t think anybody is, but I’m not even close to an expert on this subject. I’m looking at some more deflationary indicators than most people are considering right now. And so I think the efficiencies of AI are a big part of that. And I think the effect on labor from AI is going to be the biggest part of it here in the West.
Will AI create inflation or deflation?
Monetary Metals
And how does that affect someone like a Warsh at the Fed who’s saying, well, listen, we’re getting all these benefits from deflation, These companies are more efficient. AI is, you know, really causing a boom. But on the other hand, do we really need to hire 17 analysts because now we have AI? How does that play for a Fed chair like Warsh who is seeing maybe unemployment numbers going up, but the stock market going up as well?
Greyson Geiler
Some of the outward statements of both Warsh and Bessent have been demanding that everybody listen to them, that they’re not going to be driven by the stock market so much as they have as the Fed. has been historically. I’ll believe that when I see it. We’ve got a big problem in America and our dependence on the stock market. But going forward, I think those guys are going to have a little bit more flexibility to use some of the tools that they’re kind of recreating. And I’ve got a little bit more confidence going forward than I think the average bear from that monetary perspective.
Monetary Metals
If you’re enjoying this conversation, you’ll probably want to check out our 2026 Gold Outlook Report. It’s our latest edition, and it covers everything from fundamental prices of gold and silver, basis and co-basis data, as well as our macro outlook for the rest of the year and our price calls for gold and silver in 2026. It’s absolutely free to download. Just click the link.
And what about this idea that, you know, we saw Trump in his first term, he had these tariffs, then Biden came in and instead of getting rid of the tariffs, he just said, all right, maybe we’ll keep those and try something else. that there’s this one-way ratchet effect. We have tariffs, the next guy doesn’t get rid of them, maybe he adds to them. Now Trump’s back and there’s more tariffs. Do you think that this kind of tariff genie is out of the bottle where people say, all right, hey, these, these are fun, these are great, let’s use tariffs all the time?
Greyson Geiler
I think the genie is out of the bottle from that perspective. And keep in mind, you know, you’re talking about a couple of decades, a few decades of just a grand blending of the world’s economy that the best of that, it’s not coming back. People are looking at the world right now from a pretty scarcity lens. Protect us, protect ours, make our money, and that kind of stuff. And I don’t see the tariffs going away anytime soon. I mean, the market’s absorbed it fairly well, which you rewind to, what, a year ago, April, and you would’ve thought the world’s going to end. But again, lots of clickbait out there because people don’t get watched if they’re not going a little bit extreme.
Tariffs and government involvement in business
Monetary Metals
All right. Now, I also want to ask you about another ratchet, which is that Trump and the administration have taken portions of these public companies, Intel being quite a famous one, and have basically said, hey, it’d be really nice if you gave us some stock. Do you think that that is also going to happen where this blending of government and these public or private companies is going to slightly merge? Obviously, the definitional term is fascism, but do you think that’s also going to increase going forward?
Greyson Geiler
I do. And I don’t like that at all. You know, and part of their would-be doctrine, some of their repeated statements is, hey, more public-private partnerships. When I think of public-private partnerships, I think of privatizing gains and socializing losses. I think of Freddie and Fannie. There’s no way around it. This is here. This is going to continue because it can. The marketplace has turned essentially a deaf ear and a blind eye to it. I think it’s going to continue. And especially like I talk about when we’re going Fortress North America, some of the Chinese playbook is being utilized. You know, it’s justified because of, you know, some strategically necessary, security necessary sort of things. But that’s another genie coming out of the bottle. Once it’s out, you’re not putting it back in.
Monetary Metals
Let’s now kind of go on the opposite side. Let’s try to steelman the opposite case, which is hey, listen, the Trump administration is actually going to figure this out. They’re going to, you know, lower the debt. They’re going to lower the bond yields. We’re going to have a better economy. We’re going to make these trade deals. What is the strongest case where we do see, hey, instead of inflation, there’s deflation? Instead of a less globalized world and nationalization, instead we see a more globalized world. Give me the kind of steelman argument against.
Greyson Geiler
If we’re going to steelman what the Trump administration is doing and then talk against that, I cannot imagine any scenario where the kind of totalitarian power that’s being taken on is stewarded well. I don’t see it. Where you’re going to run everything, and let’s just concentrate on the Western Hemisphere. Let’s just say monetarily, you end up controlling everything. The stablecoins really suit their purpose, and you’ve got all of South America using stablecoins issued by central banks rather than Tether is probably the most likely, but who knows?
You’re completely controlling tariff-wise. You’ve got the Hamiltonian economics. You’ve got the—like you’re talking about the public-private partnerships. There’s no way you aggregate that much power and it just ends up for the best of the citizenry. So I don’t know if that’s answering your question properly. I can see a world where there’s kind of a honeymoon phase where that’s going well. But that sort of control and without more market forces to really guarantee that things are doing a little better, and you have to throw AI into that because obviously second place in this AI race is the loser. So we’re going at it with China and I’m not smart enough to tell you who’s going to win.
Why the stage is completely set for gold
Monetary Metals
Let’s talk about now gold, because obviously someone listening to this conversation is saying, well, if there’s less globalization, if there’s more of this kind of government involvement in companies, if we are betting on AI and maybe it works out or doesn’t work out, it’s time for me to add a little gold to my personal portfolio. What is the gold story? Because obviously we just had this crazy run-up in gold prices, then the war in Iran has broken out. Gold has kind of moved quite oddly, sometimes in a way you would expect and other times in ways you wouldn’t expect. So what is the gold story to you, Greyson?
Greyson Geiler
The gold story to me is it’s coming back as a capital asset in the monetary system. That’s the key part of this because Because whether you can make cryptocurrency or a Bitcoin monetary system sound good on paper, there’s no application in the real world. These are not monetary systems. They’re speculative assets. The stage is completely set for gold. The Chinese central banks, bullion banks, people are aggregating it around the world. A couple of central banks sold during these would-be Iranian war. But you know where I’m going.
People are aggregating it as a store of value. And America, we have to have a lower-valued currency versus some hard assets to compete again manufacturing-wise. So the stage is set. And when I say it’s coming back as a capital asset, this is the really interesting part about—I always contend that gold performs a completely different function outside the dollar matrix than a Bitcoin. And here’s why. There is a natural interest rate to gold.
If you have a pile of gold and you consider this an investment asset in your portfolio and you’re willing to lease or lend it out, there are lots and lots of businesses all around the globe that use gold, have an inventory of gold, are producing gold, digging it out of the ground. Lots of these guys need capital to run their business, and they would prefer to get it in, in ounce terms rather than US dollar terms. Exactly. For many different reasons, but especially because of the volatility you just talked about. In January, gold was rocketing to the moon and got out way over its skis and then cratered.
And if you’re someone using gold as inventory in your business and you’re tracking it in dollar terms and you owe dollars against that People were going nuts. Where if they’re using gold and contracts are in ounces, the dollar price really doesn’t matter that much. So that’s why I say that stage is really set for gold. Monetary Metals is doing a great job building a transparent marketplace where lenders and borrowers can come together in a transparent and structured marketplace so that contracts can go out in ounces rather than dollars.
Earning yield on gold and rewriting the 60/40 portfolio
Monetary Metals
And talk to us now about the GoldRush Yield Fund, because obviously lots of people have an interest in gold. Maybe they say, yeah, I want gold as part of my portfolio, but it’s lacking these certain qualities. Where does the GoldRush Yield Fund fit in and how is it different than just, hey, GLD on my usual ETF stock ticker?
Greyson Geiler
For sure. GLD is a wonderful tool. Essentially, you buy GLD on the New York Stock Exchange. And you own shares of a trust that own the gold. Effectively, you own gold. So the dollar value of that part of your portfolio is just going to run with gold minus their fees. We own the gold, we deploy it into leases and bonds paying us interest in gold. So instead of just the dollar price of gold minus fees, you can consider the GoldRush Fund the price of gold plus a yield. So one year in, June over June, and we beat the London fixed price of gold by 7.18%.
Monetary Metals
And so I want you to talk to me a little bit about portfolio construction when it comes to gold, because for some people they say, well, I want gold as a hedge asset, but I want a little bit more as well because I see it basically competing with bonds or with stocks and not just gold that I have in my house in case, you know, something bad were to happen. How do you see gold as kind of a portfolio construction asset? Sure.
Greyson Geiler
And 20 years ago, it would be more of that insurance versus a currency problem. 10 years ago, 20 years ago, it would have seemed somewhat extreme to say, hey, 10% of your portfolio should be in gold. Money managers would say, oh yeah, sure, maybe 1 or 2%. That has changed. And a big reason it has changed is because of what I’m talking about. There’s an interest rate on gold again. So Even the Morgan Stanleys of the world have come out and said, hey, instead of 60% stocks, 40% bonds, you should be 60% stocks, 20% bonds, 20% gold.
That’s the more aggressive ones, but a 10% starting point that gold should be in your total portfolio. This is not financial advice. Everybody’s situation is different. But 10% has become kind of the starting point. Most people still thinking about it just as a currency hedge. Hey, the Chinese are buying it, the Russians are buying it, we should buy it too. From my perspective, GoldRush Yield Fund perspective, you know, getting towards that Morgan Stanley number because, hey, it’s not just a currency crisis hedge for us, it’s an income stream. If your income is 5 ounces of gold every year, well, 10 years ago that didn’t seem like very much money.
This year, you know, 2026, that 5 ounces of gold—ounces is the denomination of your income. Well, hey, in dollars, that’s almost the median income in America now. So for people to have an avenue, to have a vehicle to look at gold, not just as an inflation hedge, but hey, we can build an income stream for future retirement. You add the income stream. to your gold. And this is where you’re producing wealth rather than just maintaining purchasing power.
Monetary Metals
Greyson, before we go to the rapid-fire section, I want to ask you about gold’s best friend, which is silver. Of course, silver has some monetary qualities, but it also has some more commodity-type qualities. Where do you see silver as relative to gold going forward?
Greyson Geiler
From my perspective on gold versus silver, I really have no idea what that ratio should be. Central banks a couple hundred years ago set it at 15 or 16 to 1, whatever the exact math was. For centuries in Europe, it was 14 to 1. Now it’s 100 to 1, whatever the math is. I’m not sitting around saying one should outperform the other. I’m looking at the investing opportunities where we can earn an interest rate. My fund has silver leases. My fund has silver bonds. So it’s the quality of those investments that’s going to get me to buy the silver. I don’t speculate on the ratio between the two.
With that being said, silver is always going to be more volatile. You look at previous gold rallies, silver will catch up and pass as the, the bull market matures. Lots and lots of people talking about $300 an ounce, $500 an ounce. I would just caution people from making a lot of speculative bets on it. We’re in a bull market. Silver’s gonna go higher. But market conditions change as the bull market continues. And people say, oh, we’re at a supply deficit. Silver has to go to $500 an ounce.
Well, between here and $500 an ounce, I promise you there will be a lot more supply. So your math is gonna change along the way. And I’m not poo-pooing silver being more volatile and going higher. It could have a great rocket launch. But for the most part, I caution people on getting too speculative with that. And from my perspective, I look at them both, gold and silver, as the assets that I’m deploying into quality opportunities to earn interest.
Predictions on silver, China, India, stablecoins and global markets
Monetary Metals
All right, Greyson, let’s get into a rapid-fire round. I’m going to ask you questions from all over the map. You can answer as short or as long as you want. Let’s start with a fun one, which is, who do you think is more likely to publicly oppose the president, either Scott Bessent or Kevin Warsh?
Greyson Geiler
Oh, I would say Kevin Warsh.
Monetary Metals
Okay, next one for you. What do you think is going to happen with interest rates at the end of Trump’s term? Do you think they’re going to be higher or lower than they are today?
Greyson Geiler
Short or long-term rates? I would say that short-term rates will be lower. You know what, I would guess that, that both short-term and long-term rates will be lower.
Monetary Metals
Okay, next one for you. What do you think is going to be the relationship between these North American countries, specifically Canada and the US, as well as South America and the US?
Greyson Geiler
I think South America is much more willing to play along with the Monroe Doctrine and the Western Hemisphere kind of performing as one with America leading the charge. Canada, stay tuned. There’s lots and lots of Chinese influence in Canada and lots of European influence in Canada. And I—that’s a roll of the dice. I don’t know.
Monetary Metals
Okay. Next one for you. Let’s talk about China. Is China more likely to be a paper tiger where their debt situation and their economic situation actually turns out worse than it seems like on paper? Or is it actually the opposite, that although they’re saying, well, maybe things don’t look so good in China internally, they’re stronger than it seems?
Greyson Geiler
I would say worse. I think they’ve got debt issues that we can’t even really—can’t even really quantify. And I think their demographic issues could possibly turn into be the catalyst to make them struggle more than it looks like right now.
Monetary Metals
Let’s talk about one of those most populous countries in the world, which is India. Do you see India as overtaking China at some point in terms of their economic strength?
Greyson Geiler
I do. India has been the black hole of gold for 5,000 years. And by that I mean gold goes into India and it doesn’t come back out. So we’re guessing, hopefully, I’m cautiously optimistic that the Treasury actually owns 8,200 ounces or 8,200 tons of gold. I’m cautiously optimistic that that’s true. Just wild guesses and most reasonable guesses. It seems that in basements and safes and closets and jewelry and on people and all, all that in India, you’re talking about every bit of 100,000 tons.
So as gold comes more into the marketplace, I think India is going to be more on the forefront of using gold. I mean, they’ve publicly stated they want to use gold as a capital asset. They want gold moving again in their country. And I think that’s going to be a good catalyst for them to bring up because, I mean, right now the average income in India per capita is something atrocious, $4,000, $5,000 a year or something like that. So there’s obviously more upside, but I think there’s also a catalyst in India, and that’s gold starting to move again, that could really propel them forward a lot faster than China.
Monetary Metals
Let’s talk about Africa now. Obviously, China has tried to get lots of different mining resources in Africa, but Africa has all these different types of exploration companies and mining companies. Where do you see Africa, the continent, going in the future? Is this going to be, hey, this—they’re going to join the West and join the group? Are they going to be by themselves, going to be independent, or are they going to be under the Chinese sphere of influence?
Greyson Geiler
I would tend towards a little more under the Chinese sphere of influence. The Chinese have been taking pages out of our playbook, investing in Africa, building the infrastructure for Africa, and oh wait, we didn’t do that for free. All the wheat you’re growing is ours. I’m exaggerating, of course. So I would tend to think that it’s, it’s a little more wild, wild west in Africa. There’s obviously still tremendous upside. The average age in Africa is half what it is in America. So there’s obviously still tremendous upside. I think the Chinese influence is a big monkey wrench in the works. You got to be cautious.
Monetary Metals
Let’s talk about crypto and stablecoins. Obviously, Bitcoin was going to be this next monetary asset, but it turns out stablecoins are even more of a hot product in terms of their market product fit. Do you see gold stablecoins overtaking dollar-based stablecoins?
Greyson Geiler
I don’t. I really don’t. I think for a unit of account and a medium of exchange, dollar-based stablecoins I don’t want to exaggerate how big this could be because nobody really knows. And it’s not like the rest of the world is—let me rewind and explain it for your viewers a little tighter. So the dollar-based stablecoins, Ben, you could wire Tether or one of the banks.
BlackRock, of course, has the biggest of these stablecoins. You could wire them $10,000. They’re going to issue you 10,000 Tether. They’re going to keep your $10,000. They’re going to go buy treasuries with the $10,000. But now you’ve got 10,000 Tethers or the BlackRock coin. Same thing as Bitcoin. Now you can just press a button, you can send purchasing power around the globe. No corresponding banks, no 72-hour settlements, no fees. I mean, it’s awesome. And now it’s not in terms of Bitcoin where the price is doing this and nobody can keep track of what it’s worth. It’s on the US dollar chest.
Well, Ben and Greyson sitting here talking in America, hey, I just lost a bet to Ben. I can just Zelle him. I can Venmo him. I can PayPal him. Essentially the same functionality. Just press a button and Ben’s got it. Technically still within our banking matrix. But why do I care about these stablecoins? Oh, I’m not sure. You know, unless you’re doing, you’re buying a lot of cryptos, there are reasons, but for the most part, you probably shouldn’t care about that. But imagine. 400 million South Sub-Saharan African people that have a smartphone, have internet access, and they have no bank account.
You’ve essentially taken these US dollars out of the banking system and put them on the internet, and it’s exploding around the world. Turkey is one of the hot hubs of it right now. People there don’t save in lira. They save in these stablecoins or they save in gold. It’s going into Sub-Saharan Africa. It’s going down into South America. How far does it go? Nobody really knows because of course there’s going to be some pushback from governments that have a tough time tracking, taxing, regulating all that kind of stuff, all the business that’s going on through these stablecoins.
But man, I mean, I could imagine a world where all of South America is using these stablecoins rather than the currencies, you know, that are really falling apart anyway. Look at a 20-year chart of the Brazilian real. So I think it could be absolutely huge, but we got to wait and see if it plays out like that. Nobody knows for sure.
Monetary Metals
And talk to me about these other countries and their currencies. Obviously people saying, oh, the dollar, there’s hyperinflation around the corner. Oh dear, the dollar is going to devalue. But if you look at these other countries, Brazilian real, Turkish lira, Argentinian peso, way worse. So which of these currencies do you think is most in danger of getting the most devalued?
Greyson Geiler
Oh, Turkish lira. I don’t see how this doesn’t go to zero. Indian rupee is in huge trouble. And that’s a big deal. You know, 1.4 billion people, what, 5th or 6th largest economy on the planet. So I would look there first. Some of these really tiny sub-Saharan African currencies are, you know, even in South America, I’m surprised that Argentina hasn’t officially gone to the US dollar the way Ecuador did. Don’t know for sure, but a guess I have is because they owe the IMF so much money that maybe there’s a Maybe there’s a hurdle in there so they can’t get it done. I don’t know. But we’re swap lining dollars out to people. The stablecoins are available for other countries. So when we’re talking about a lot of these third world currencies, my estimation will probably go to zero.
Monetary Metals
Okay. Now I want to ask you about which country outside the US do you think is most likely to outperform expectations?
Greyson Geiler
I would say India.
Monetary Metals
Okay. And then which country outside the US do you think is most likely to underperform their expectations?
Greyson Geiler
I think there’s a lot of Western Europe that’s in more trouble than people think right now. There, there may be some sparks, some slivers of light, but I guess right now, if you wanted a specific country to answer that, I would say Germany.
Monetary Metals
Okay. Next one for you is about the different asset classes. Obviously, we’ve talked about gold and silver, stocks and bonds, Which asset class do you think right now is the most underrated?
Greyson Geiler
I think there’s going to be a lot of money to be made on longer-term debt instruments. I wouldn’t lever up long 30-year US Treasuries, but this anything but bonds is getting wildly overdone. So I would say the long end of the bond curve, there’s going to be some great opportunities in the next 2, 3, 4 years. And I think there’s going to have to be a lot more investment in some of the agriculture stocks, some of the resource-type stocks. But Caveat to that statement, I’ve been saying that for 15 years.
Monetary Metals
All right, Greyson, next one for you. What’s an asset class you think people are really excited about? It’s really hot, but just for Greyson, you think maybe not.
Greyson Geiler
Yeah, and the biggest thing for that is, is obviously AI. I don’t think it’s as bad as, you know, the 2001 dot bomb. It’s clearly not that bad, but there are wild imbalances in there. I’m not an expert in that field, And I see a lot of, let’s just say, undereducated investors piling in and thinking, forget about the volatility. Oh, it’s, it’s going to the moon. I think we still have some big problems in there. Let me say that, you know, hedge funds see that too. So they’ll get short on a moment’s notice and then a week later they’re getting blown out to the upside. So I have a tough time getting a real handle on it, but I’m relatively certain that there’s going to be some big washouts in there. I would definitely urge All right.
Monetary Metals
Last one in the rapid-fire section. What’s something that you’ve changed your mind about that’s helped you in your investing career?
Greyson Geiler
I think the, the biggest thing is removing my expectations and the way I think things should be, whether it’s morally, whether it’s a spreadsheet says this is how it is. That’s really led me to, if, if you rewind to 2009, 2010, ’11, ’12, The whole Western world just loading on oceans of debt at almost zero interest rates. I just—this whole monetary system has to blow up. And I found myself almost angry that gold was still $1,200 an ounce.
And I caught myself when I was mad that the system hadn’t blown up. And I’m like, wait a second, that’s insanity. I don’t want the system to blow up. I have to rethink this. And it’s about the time that I’m thinking that is when I started leasing and loaning gold out for an interest rate so I can sit back in this portion of my portfolio. I don’t know the dollar price 10 years from now. I just know I’m going to have more ounces. That’s a little bit of a long-winded answer in a rapid fire, but that’s what I would say. Yeah.
Monetary Metals
All right. And as we come towards the end of our interview here, Let’s just imagine you’re in the audience. You say, okay, I’m interested in gold. I like the idea of a yield on gold. I like this idea of the GoldRush Yield Fund. Who is this kind of most applicable for in terms of adding this to their portfolio?
Greyson Geiler
Yeah, I think everybody’s financial situation is different, of course, but some people just really have an aversion to gold and I’m not going to fight those people. Some people say, hey, I recognize that I could get an interest rate on my gold. But if it’s not in my hands, I don’t own it, and I’m not interested. I get it. I’m not going to fight those people. Where this is really applicable is for people that are sold that they want to have some significant portion of their assets, of their portfolio in gold. They recognize nobody knows, but gold’s got a better track record than everything else. So they want to have gold and/or silver, and for a portion of that, they see the merit. and using it as a capital asset and continuing to acquire more ounces. That’s the investor that we’re looking for.
Monetary Metals
All right, Greyson, I always ask all my guests this question, which is, what’s a question I should be asking all future guests of the Gold Exchange Podcast?
Greyson Geiler
I guess the most compelling part of our discussion to me is an India versus China thing and the corresponding currencies and interest rates in between those two. I think that’s gonna be really compelling for the next few years. And the biggest reason I say I would ask people that is because I don’t see a lot of people talking about it. You know, we hear all the time how the US dollar’s going to zero and the dollar’s a mess. You gotta buy gold, gotta get your guns. I don’t see a lot of people kind of comparing as the world’s monetary system and economy shifts, how’s that gonna affect the 2 biggest populations?
Monetary Metals
Greyson, as always, it is a pleasure speaking with you. If someone is interested in learning more about the GoldRush Yield Fund, And where can they learn more?
Greyson Geiler
Andocap.com. A-N-D-O-C-A-P.com. You can look me up on LinkedIn. I post a lot of stuff on LinkedIn as well. On our webpage, you know, we’ve got a lot of videos, podcasts even, and a lot of newsletters and charts and graphs and educational material and all that kind of stuff too.
Monetary Metals
Greyson, as always, it is a pleasure speaking with you. And of course, can’t wait to see you in person. Thanks so much for joining us again on the Gold Exchange Podcast. Appreciate it, Ben.
Greyson Geiler
Enjoy the day.
